philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician
[12] Accountability binds people to collectivities by specifying who must answer to whom, for what, and under what ground rules. Do preach to the people that already believe in your mission. The interrogators would aggressively assault the subjects world-views (the goal was to mentally stress the participants). How Do We Know? De-biasing judgment and choice. Search for truth through testing hypotheses, running experiments, and uncovering new truths. PHILIP E. TETLOCK is Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania (School of Arts and Sciences and Wharton School). [Adam Grant]: Two decades ago, I read a brilliant paper by Phil Tetlock, who introduced me to this idea of thinking like a preacher, a prosecutor or a politician. Tetlock is a psychologisthe teaches at Berkeleyand his conclusions are based on a long-term study that he began twenty years ago. We make predictions about the possible outcomes of certain actions in order to inform our decision-making. In a study of entrepreneurs, a test group was encouraged to use scientific thinking to develop a business strategy. I saw it everywhere I saw it in my own thinking in other people's thinking I saw it in the way we . Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician; 29 Jun 22; ricotta cheese factory in melbourne; philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politicianis sonny barger still alive in 2020 Category: . Whats the best way to find those out? Philip Tetlock is currently the Annenberge University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. In Behind the Science of Intelligence Analysis, Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Home; About. The test group outperformed the control group significantly and tended to pivot twice as often. Just a few more efforts at rethinking can move the needle.. Tetlock, P.E., Kristel, O., Elson, B., Green M., &Lerner, J. Since 2011, he has been the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania. Remember: real-life scientists can easily fall into preacher, prosecutor, politician modes too. Better yet, make your identity one in which you actively seek truth and knowledgethis opens you up to curiosity and rethinking. The final part looks at rethinking at the institutional or group level. The more pessimistic tone of Expert Political Judgment (2005) and optimistic tone of Superforecasting (2015) reflects less a shift in Tetlocks views on the feasibility of forecasting than it does the different sources of data in the two projects. Its not a matter of having low self-confidence. One finding: framing issues as binary (i.e. . Chapter 8: Charged Conversations. The fundamental message: think. He also identified "overpredicting change, creating incoherent scenarios" and "overconfidence, the confirmation bias and base-rate neglect." Opening story: Smokejumpers and the Mann Gulch fire (Montana) of 1949. Tetlock is also co-principal investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a multi-year study of the feasibility of improving the accuracy of probability judgments of high-stakes, real-world events. He has published over 200 articles in peer-reviewed journals and has edited or written ten books.[1]. Essentially, there are three modes, according to Tetlock: Preacher: In Preacher mode, we hold a fundamentally inarguable idea that we will passionately express, protecting it with great devotion. The stronger a persons belief, the more important the quality of the reasons or justifications. Marie-Helene is against vaccines, but the child would benefit from a measles vaccine. Superforecasting is an informative, well-researched book, while remaining highly accessible. Opening story: Ursula Mercz, in the late 1800s, was diagnosed as blind but insisted she could see and was completely unaware of this fact. Illustrative questions include "What is the chance that a member will withdraw from the European Union by a target date?" The rate of the development of science is not the rate at which you make observations alone but, much more important, the rate at which you create new things to test., Tetlock and his team have reached the conclusion that, while not everyone has the ability to become a superforecaster, we are all capable of improving our judgment.6While the research of the Good Judgment Project has come to a close, the Good Judgment initiative continues to offer consulting services and workshops to companies worldwide. PHILIP TETLOCK: We want a lot of things from our forecasters, and accuracy is often not the first thing. When, for instance, do liberals and conservatives diverge in the preferences for "process accountability" that holds people responsible for respecting rules versus "outcome accountability" that holds people accountable for bottom-line results? Scientist: Grant appends this professional worldview to Tetlocks mindset models. He found that overall, his study subjects weren't. He struck up a conversation with a white man who was a member of the Ku Klux Klan. Prosecutors: We attack the ideas of others, often to win an argument. The most confident are often the least competent. The book mentions how experts are often no better at making predictions than most other people, and how when they are wrong, they are rarely held accountable. Lebow &G. Parker (eds) Unmaking the West: What-If Scenarios that Rewrite World History. (Eds.) Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. The simplest way to start rethinking our options is to question what we do daily.. What should we eat for dinner?). Michelle Obama on asking a child what they want to be when they grow up: Its one of the most useless questions an adult can ask a child. Because of this they remain curious and flexible, always seeking the truth. Presumes the world is divided into two sides: believers and non-believers. He has served on the faculty of the University of California, Berkeley (19791995, assistant professor), the Ohio State University (the Burtt Endowed Chair in Psychology and Political Science, 19962001) and again at the University of California Berkeley (the Mitchell Endowed Chair at the Haas School of Business, 20022010). (2004). New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001. Tetlock, P. E. (1994). Home; Uncategorized; philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician Opening story: International debate champion Harish Natarajan vs. Debra Jo Prectet (later revealed to be a computer AI). Sunk costs are one explanation (an economic factor). [24][25][26][27] Rather, humans prefer to believe that they have sacred values that provide firm foundations for their moral-political opinions. As if growing up is finite. We risk overemphasizing pleasure at the expense of purpose. In the same study that yielded these somewhat sobering findings, however, Tetlock noticed that a few experts stood out from the crowd and demonstrated real foresight. Phil Tetlock's (political scientist) mindset model: Preachers, prosecutors, and politicians. They too are prone to forgetting their professional tools. ), Research in organizational behavior (vol. The purpose of learning isnt to affirm our beliefs; its to evolve our beliefs., The rethinking cycle: Humility => Doubt => Curiosity => Discovery, The overconfidence cycle: Pride => Conviction => Confirmation and Desirability Biases => Validation, Chapter 2: The Armchair Quarterback and the Imposter. Washington, DC: National Academies Press. Tetlock, R.N. They argue that tournaments are ways of signaling that an organization is committed to playing a pure accuracy game and generating probability estimates that are as accurate as possible (and not tilting estimates to avoid the most recent "mistake"). So too do different mental jobs. (2002). Tetlock has advanced variants of this argument in articles on the links between cognitive styles and ideology (the fine line between rigid and principled)[31][32] as well as on the challenges of assessing value-charged concepts like symbolic racism[33] and unconscious bias (is it possible to be a "Bayesian bigot"?). Different physical jobs call for different tools. In one of historys great ironies, scientists today know vastly more than their colleagues a century ago, and possess vastly more data-crunching power, but they are much less confident in the prospects for perfect predictability. Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. flexible thinking. is a 2005 book by Philip E. Tetlock. Present schooling still relies heavily on the lecture. We dont just hesitate to rethink our answers. Why do you think its correct? **Chapter 1: A Preacher, a Prosecutor, a Politician, and a Scientist ** Blind adherence to these tools can result in poor outcomes: inflexible overconfidence, bad decision-making, avoidable errors, and failures to learn and grow. Politicians work well in government settings. Superforecasting by Penguin Random House. Harish uses a powerful combination of techniquescommon understandings, non-judgmental questions, flexible thinkingto win over some in the audience. [34][35][36][37] Tetlock has also co-authored papers on the value of ideological diversity in psychological and social science research. Isaac Asimov: Great discoveries often begin not with Eureka! but with Thats funny. *These modes run throughout Adam Grants book, Think Again. For THE book on predictions and decisions in the face of uncertainty, see Philip Tetlocks Superforecasting., Your email address will not be published. on government, politics, or international affairs and the Robert E. Lane Award for best book in political psychology. Psychological safety is not a matter of relaxing standardsits fostering a climate of respect, trust, and opennessits the foundation of a learning culture.. What he found is that a person who is knowledgeable in a variety of areas is a better forecaster than a person who has an in-depth, but extremely narrow area of expertise. Pp. GET BOOK > Unmaking the West: What-if scenarios that rewrite world history Tetlock, P.E., Lebow, R.N., & Parker, G. The overview effect: Astronauts experience space travel gain a unique understanding of humanity. People as intuitive prosecutors: The impact of social control motives on attributions of responsibility. *Served Daily*. Deniers reject anything from the other side. They revert to preacher, prosecutor, and politician modes. caps on vehicle emissions). Strong opinions like stereotypes and prejudice are less likely to be reconsidered. In addition, the mission was based on mistaken assumptions about wildfiresthat immediate suppression was the optimal strategy. The incident was a powerful reminder that we need to reevaluate our assumptions and determine how we arrived at them. Author sees the idea of best practices as misguided. When he is pretty sure of how it is going to work, and he tells you, This is the way its going to work, Ill bet, he still is in some doubt. Richard Feynman (physicist): You must not fool yourselfand you are the easiest person to fool.. Detaching your opinions from your identity. Good outcomes arent always the result of good decisions. In real-world debates over distributive justice, however, Tetlock argues it is virtually impossible to disentangle the factual assumptions that people are making about human beings from the value judgments people are making about end-state goals, such as equality and efficiency. Academy of Management Review 31 (2006):10-29. McCarthy taught her students that knowledge evolves and that it continues to evolve today. Motivational interviewing: The best approach to changing someones mind is to help that person make the change on their own. We base our decisions on forecasts, so these findings call into question the accuracy of our decision-making. When he tells you he has a hunch about how it is going to work, he is uncertain about it. New York: Elsevier. Tetlock, P. E. (1994). A mark of lifelong learners is recognizing that they can learn something from everyone they meet.. Alternative view: intelligence is the ability to rethink and unlearn, i.e. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Tetlocks primary research interest, the question of what constitutes good judgment, is also his claim to fame. "Hedgehogs" performed less well, especially on long-term forecasts within the domain of their expertise. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? The first part considers rethinking at the individual level. freedom and equality. When does accountability promote mindless conformity? 1988-1995 Director, Institute of Personality and Social Research, University of California, Berkeley. Rethinking is fundamental to scientific thinking. Those with a scientific mindset search for truth by testing hypotheses, regularly run experiments, and continuously uncover new truths and revise their thinking. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. the degree to which simple training exercises improved the accuracy of probabilistic judgments as measured by Brier scores; the degree to which the best forecasters could learn to distinguish many degrees of uncertainty along the zero to 1.0 probability scale (many more distinctions than the traditional 7-point verbal scale used by the National Intelligence Council); the consistency of the performance of the elite forecasters (superforecasters) across time and categories of questions; the power of a log-odds extremizing aggregation algorithm to out-perform competitors; the apparent ability of GJP to generate probability estimates that were "reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information. Ellen Ochoa (NASA astronaut and director) 3x5 note card reminded her to ask these questions: How do you know? is an important question to ask both of ourselves and of others. 2006. Tetlock P. and Mellers B. Imposter syndrome: Phenomenon where competence exceeds confidence. , traces the evolution of this project. or "How likely is the head of state of Venezuela to resign by a target date?" Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. In the first chapter of the book, Grant outlines three common mindsets coined by political scientist Phil Tetlock: preacher, prosecutor, and politician. Intelligent management of intelligence analysis: Escaping the blame game by signaling commitment to trans-ideological epistemic values. I was most interested in the ideas from Part 1 and wish he focused on those more. or "What is the likelihood of naval clashes claiming over 10 lives in the East China Sea?" Cons: The pattern of bookending every chapter with an anecdote gets tiresome. After seeing Earth from above, their perspective changes and the see the commonality of our existence. Values retain flexibility that opinions do not. Present fewer reasons to support their case. Being persuaded is defeat. As Prosecutor, we automatically attack any ideas that don't f Philip Tetlock | Psychology Philip Tetlock Leonore Annenberg University Professor BA, University of British Columbia; PhD, Psychology, Yale University Office Location: Solomon Labs, 3720 Walnut St, Room C8 Email: tetlock@wharton.upenn.edu Phone: 215-746-8541 Website: http://www.sas.upenn.edu/tetlock/ CV (url): capitalism and communism. I hate you!). Tetlock: The current project is supported by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency of the US government -- and it is the most systematic effort, to date, at testing the effectiveness. Prosecutors work well in a courtroom. American Association for the Advancement of Science, International Society of Political Psychology, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, "Forecasting tournaments: Tools for increasing transparency and the quality of debate", "Identifying and Cultivating "Superforecasters" as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions", "The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis: Drivers of Prediction Accuracy in World Politics", "Accounting for the effects of accountability", "Accountability and ideology: When left looks right and right looks left", "Cognitive biases and organizational correctives: Do both disease and cure depend on the ideological beholder? Those who embraced flexible thinking did not. The book also profiles several "superforecasters." We seek peak happiness (intensity), rather than small, steady positive happiness (frequency). Every individual possesses cognitive tools and accumulated knowledge that they regularly rely upon. If necessary, discuss your orders. How Can We Know? In 1983, he was playing a gig. Enter your email below and join us. [29][30] In this view, political actorsbe they voters or national leadersare human beings whose behavior should be subject to fundamental psychological laws that cut across cultures and historical periods. By contrast, System 1 is largely a stranger to us. Princeton University Press, 2005. Dont persecute a preacher in front of their own congregation. This research argues that most people recoil from the specter of relativism: the notion that the deepest moral-political values are arbitrary inventions of mere mortals desperately trying to infuse moral meaning into an otherwise meaningless universe. We can demonstrate openness by acknowledging where we agree with our critics and even what weve learned from them.. jack the ripper documentary channel 5 / ravelry crochet leg warmers / philip tetlock preacher, prosecutor, politician. manchester city council environment contact number; 415 417 south 10th street philadelphia, pa; the lodge in runwell, wickford Desirability bias: The tendency to act in a manner that enhances your acceptance or approval from others. Moore, D., Tetlock, P.E., Tanlu, L., &Bazerman, M. (2006). Tetlock describes the profiles of various superforecasters and the attributes they share in the book he wrote alongside Dan Gardner,Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Optimism and big-picture thinking will help you sell your business idea. The preacher - this is where we are the 'enlightened one' who knows the answer. The first is the "Preacher". Resisting the impulse to simplify is a step toward becoming more argument literate.. The antidote is to complexify by showing the range of views for a given topic. Performance accountability evaluates projects, individuals and teams based on outcomes. Escalation of commitment is another (psychological factor). His career has had a major impact on decision-making processes worldwide, as his discovery of superforecasters has enabled him to uncover the attributes and methodologies necessary for making accurate predictions. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Conflicts of interest and the case of auditor independence: Moral Seduction and Strategic Issue Cycling. By identifying the attributes shared by successful forecasters and the methodologies that allow for accurate forecasting, Tetlock and his team at Good Judgment are able to help companies promote these skills among their employees. Opening story: Marie-Helene Etienne-Rousseau of Quebec gives birth to a child. Parker, G., Tetlock, P.E. This allows them to make more adaptive decisions, which foster success within the company. Although he too occasionally adopts this reductionist view of political psychology in his work, he has also raised the contrarian possibility in numerous articles and chapters that reductionism sometimes runs in reverseand that psychological research is often driven by ideological agenda (of which the psychologists often seem to be only partly conscious). The Adversarial Collaboration Project, run by Cory Clark and Philip Tetlock, helps scientists with competing perspectives design joint research that tests both arguments. Good teachers introduce new thoughts, but great teachers introduce new ways of thinking., Education is more than the information we accumulate in our heads. Only one side can be right because there is only one truth. Organizational culture can either foster or inhibit rethinking. One of the subjects was Ted Kaczynski (The Unabomber); he had one of the strongest negative responses to the study. This book fills that need. modern and postmodern values. Learn to ask questions that dont have a single right answer. In the most comprehensive analysis of expert prediction ever conducted, Philip Tetlock assembled a group of some 280 anonymous volunteerseconomists, political scientists, intelligence analysts, journalistswhose work involved forecasting to some degree or other. When promoting your idea, you were being a Preacher - arguing your point of view based on a set of prior beliefs. Binary bias: The human tendency to seek clarity by reducing a spectrum of categories to two opposites. NASA took Lucas explanation at face value. Arkes, H., &Tetlock, P.E. Murray designed a test in which subjects (Harvard students) were interrogated. The slavery debate in antebellum America: Cognitive style, value conflict, and the limits of compromise", "Disentangling reasons and rationalizations: Exploring perceived fairness in hypothetical societies", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Philip_E._Tetlock&oldid=1140127422. Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. black and white) leads to polarization, but presenting issues as complex with many gradations of viewpoints leads to greater cooperation. Most of the other smokejumpers perished. Opening story: Teacher Erin McCarthy assigned her 8th grade students a textbook from 1940 to see if they accepted the information without question or if they noticed any problematic anachronisms. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. Tetlock's research program over the last four decades has explored five themes: In his early work on good judgment, summarized in Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? Opening story: Orville and Wilbur Wright and the chemistry the two brothers had as intellectual partners. The tournament challenged GJP and its competitors at other academic institutions to come up with innovative methods of recruiting gifted forecasters, methods of training forecasters in basic principles of probabilistic reasoning, methods of forming teams that are more than the sum of their individual parts and methods of developing aggregation algorithms that most effectively distill the wisdom of the crowd.[3][4][5][6][7][8]. And how do experts respond to confirmation/disconfirmation of expectations? Questioning ourselves makes the world more unpredictable. We distinguish ourselves from our adversariesthey are everything we are not. And only when we are proven wrong so clearly that we can no longer deny it to ourselves will we adjust our mental models of the worldproducing a clearer picture of reality. Philip Tetlock carries out "forecasting tournaments" to test peoples' ability to predict complex events. That said, its hard to knock a book that preaches the importance of curiosity, open-mindedness, flexible thinking and empathy. Great listeners are more interested in making their audiences feel smart., Part III: Collective Rethinking These habits of thought can be learned and cultivated by any intelligent, thoughtful, determined person., Tetlock, who was born in Canada, attended university in his native country, at the University of British Columbia, where he completed his undergraduate degree in 1975 and his Masters degree in 1976.8He went on to do his doctoral studies at Yale, where he obtained his Ph.D. in psychology in 1979.9Since then, Tetlock has taught courses in management, psychology, and political science at the University of California, Berkeley, the Ohio State University, and the University of Pennsylvania, where he is a current faculty member.10Broadly, his research focuses on the evaluation of good judgment and the criteria used to assess judgment, bias, and error.11, In describing how we think and decide, modern psychologists often deploy a dual-system model that partitions our mental universe into two domains. Rational models of human behavior aim to predict, possibly control, humans. There are solid ideas in Think Again, but the presentation left this reader wanting. 5 Jun. Poking Counterfactual Holes in Covering Laws: Cognitive Styles and Historical Reasoning. The concept of superforecasters was developed by The Good Judgment Project and is arguably their best-known discovery. We would shut down., Philip Tetlock,Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. What do you want to be when you grow up? Cognitive bias: Seeing what we want to see. 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Recognize complexity as a signal of credibility., Psychologists find that people will ignore or even deny the existence of a problem if theyre not fond of the solution.. Still, Tetlock has gone beyond journal articles, turning to a He is also the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin . The expert political judgment project also compared the accuracy track records of "foxes" and "hedgehogs" (two personality types identified in Isaiah Berlin's 1950 essay "The Hedgehog and the Fox"). The spotlight here is on a fundamental question in political theory: who should get what from whom, when, how, and why? Hypotheses have as much of a place in our lives as they do in the lab. Task conflict: Arguments over specific ideas and opinions (e.g. Tetlock was born in 1954 in Toronto, Canada and completed his undergraduate work at the University of British Columbia and doctoral work at Yale University, obtaining his PhD in 1979.
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